New Delhi | Moscow:
US President Donald Trump has turned up the heat on India — and this time, it’s not just about trade imbalances. His recent move to slap 25%, and soon 50% tariffs on Indian goods has a clear political message: Washington is not happy with India’s deepening ties with Moscow.
And the proof? Trump openly cited India’s massive oil imports from Russia as a key reason behind the tariff escalation.
🇷🇺 Putin-Modi Chemistry: Delhi-Moscow Ties Growing Stronger
On 9 July 2024, PM Narendra Modi met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow — a visit that saw more than photo-ops. The two leaders discussed everything from oil to weapons, and even rolled out plans to push bilateral trade to $100 billion annually.
Currently, India-Russia trade stands around $60 billion, but the target is clear: double it by 2030.
In fact, Modi’s Moscow visits are picking up pace — he visited Russia twice in 2024, once in July and again in October for the BRICS Summit.
Russia, too, is embracing India with open arms. On July 9 last year, Putin conferred Russia’s highest civilian honour, the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle, on PM Modi — a rare moment in India-Russia diplomacy.
🛢️ India’s Russian Oil Addiction: The Root of US Frustration?
Before the Ukraine war, India barely bought oil from Russia — just 0.2% of its needs (around 68,000 barrels/day). But fast forward to 2025, and we’re now importing 17.8 lakh barrels per day — that’s second only to China.
Over the last two years, India has purchased more than $130 billion worth of Russian oil annually. And Trump? He’s had enough.
While addressing reporters recently, Trump blamed India’s continued oil trade with Russia for the harsh tariffs. He believes India’s business with Moscow is indirectly funding the Ukraine war — a narrative Washington has been pushing hard, especially during election season.
🇮🇳 Doval’s Moscow Visit: More Than Just Diplomacy
India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval landed in Moscow this week — his first visit after Operation Sindoor. During his high-level meetings with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, Doval stressed the strong and valued partnership between the two nations.
His visit is seen as a key move to reaffirm India’s independent foreign policy — one that balances relations with both Washington and Moscow.
There’s also buzz that President Putin may visit India later this year, marking his first trip since the Ukraine war began in 2022.
🔎 ICC Arrest Warrant: Why Putin Isn’t Travelling Much
Let’s not forget — an arrest warrant against Putin was issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in March 2023 over alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Since then, the Russian President has avoided foreign travel, even skipping last year’s G20 summit in Delhi. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attended instead.
Putin is also expected to skip the upcoming G20 summit in Brazil. But India? It’s still one of the few major democracies openly engaging with Moscow.
🛃 Trump’s Tariffs: Punishment or Pressure Tactic?
Experts believe Trump’s tariff war isn’t just about balancing trade sheets. It’s about sending a signal to India — stop the cozying up to Russia, or pay a price.
And while Trump has long criticized India for imposing higher duties on US goods, this sudden hike in tariffs — especially targeting Indian exports like textiles, pharma, and jewellery — suggests a geopolitical undertone.
“Only 8 hours have passed. Much more is coming,” Trump warned recently — hinting at secondary sanctions on India too.
💬 Final Word: Can India Afford to Displease the West?
India is trying to walk a tightrope — maintain its strategic autonomy, grow trade with Russia, and still not upset the US too much. But Trump’s aggressive stance may force India to make hard choices, especially if secondary sanctions or financial restrictions follow.
So the big question is:
Can India afford to buy cheap oil at the cost of expensive exports?
With Modi and Putin doubling down on friendship, and Trump turning up the tariff heat — the world is watching how Delhi will juggle its global priorities.
